Belém, November 10, 2025 – On the first day of COP 30, held in Belém, the Amazon Regional Observatory of the Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization (ARO/ACTO) hosted a panel on tipping points in the Amazon. The event, coordinated by Arnaldo Carneiro, brought together three experts on climate change and Amazonian ecosystems: Paulo Artaxo (USP), José Marengo (INPE/CEMADEN), and Marielos Peña-Claros (Wageningen University and co-chair of the Science Panel for the Amazon).
Paulo Artaxo opened the panel with alarming data on global warming, emphasizing that 2024 recorded unprecedented temperatures. The USP researcher explained that the Amazon is approaching a dangerous tipping point. Studies show that a 4°C temperature increase or deforestation reaching 40% of the total area could trigger an irreversible shift from tropical forest to savanna, particularly in the eastern and southeastern Amazon.
Artaxo presented data from the MapBiomas platform showing that in 2024 Brazil had net emissions of 250 million tons of CO₂ equivalent, with 98% coming from deforestation. He warned of a “domino effect” in climate change and highlighted the importance of MapBiomas Atmosphere as an integrated monitoring tool for meteorological data, pollutants, and greenhouse gases since 1985.
José Marengo, from CEMADEN, expanded the discussion on the causes and consequences of tipping points. He noted that the Amazon has faced consecutive years of severe droughts linked to El Niño and the warming of the Tropical North Atlantic (2005, 2010, 2015–16, 2023–24). During these periods, parts of the forest—especially in the east—stopped absorbing CO₂ and began emitting it.
“The Amazon rainforest is approaching critical ecological thresholds due to the interaction between climate change and land use, with large-scale transformation risks already evident between 1.5°C and 2°C of global warming,” Marengo warned. He stressed that negative social tipping points are already unfolding, including population displacement, health impacts, and cultural erosion affecting Indigenous peoples and traditional communities.
Marengo emphasized that current climate mitigation measures are insufficient and called for an integrated strategy that accelerates the energy transition, combats deforestation, and implements preventive and systemic governance.
Marielos Peña-Claros concluded the panel with a comprehensive analysis of socio-environmental impacts and presented the recommendations of the Science Panel for the Amazon. She reported that forest fires cause roughly 16,800 deaths per year due to air pollution, while droughts threaten water and food security as well as public health for millions of people.
“The threats are multiple and interconnected. Climate change, biodiversity loss, pollution, and deforestation—and their impacts—affect Amazonian populations unevenly,” Peña-Claros explained. She cautioned that the loss of the Amazon would trigger global cascading effects, including reduced rainfall across South America, threats to food and energy security, and massive carbon emissions that would accelerate global warming.
Peña-Claros outlined five key recommendations from the Science Panel for the Amazon: conserving and restoring the ecological and sociocultural connectivity of the region; supporting Indigenous peoples and local communities in safeguarding the forest and contributing to climate mitigation; promoting conditions that strengthen socio-bioeconomies; fostering cross-border collaboration for managing shared resources and combating illegal economies; and creating large-scale financial mechanisms to conserve and restore forests and rivers.
The three experts shared a clear consensus: the window to prevent tipping points is rapidly closing. With global warming reaching critical levels and the Amazon under mounting pressure from deforestation and climate change, immediate and coordinated action is essential to protect not only the forest but also the communities that depend on it and the global climate balance.
Finally, the experts reaffirmed that protecting the Amazon is not only a regional concern but a global priority to avoid irreversible climate consequences.
